9 tendencias que cambiarán el futuro del marketing y el consumo online

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CLAVES:

  • La tecnología y la red de forma específica han cambiado la sociedad y han cambiado nuestros hábitos de consumo.
  • El mercado es cada vez más fragmentario y variado y, por tanto, los consumidores tienen cada vez más opciones que roban su atención.
  • En este contexto, las marcas tienen que luchar más duro que nunca antes para posicionarse. A todo ello, se debe sumar que la sociedad está en pleno proceso de cambio.
  • Así pues, las marcas tienen que tener por tanto muy claro qué está cambiando y qué cambiará y cómo esos cambios les afectarán.
  • Analizando esta coyuntura, The Wall Street Journal ha identificado las 9 tendencias clave que cambiarán el mundo de los medios y de la tecnología en el futuro inmediato.

Los cambios que se producen en esos escenarios tienen un efecto directo sobre cómo nos comportamos, qué hacemos y qué compramos y entender lo que ocurre en la relación entre los consumidores y ellos es crucial para comprender qué es lo que deben hacer las marcas.

¿Cómo están cambiando y cómo van a cambiar las relaciones entre los consumidores, los medios y la tecnología en los próximos tiempos? ¿Qué preocupará a los jugadores de estos terrenos en el futuro inmediato? En general, se podría decir que el mercado es cada vez más fragmentario y variado y que, por tanto, los consumidores tienen cada vez más y más opciones y más y más contenido que roba su atención e intenta ser lo que se convierta en lo que al consumidor realmente le interesa. A esto hay que sumar que las ofertas son cada vez más variadas y complejas y que las marcas tienen que luchar más duro para posicionar. Y, de forma paralela a todo ello, se debe sumar que la sociedad está en pleno proceso de cambio.

Las marcas tienen que tener por tanto muy claro qué está cambiando y qué cambiará y cómo esos cambios les afectarán. Analizando esta coyuntura se pueden identificar las 9 tendencias clave que cambiarán el mundo de los medios y de la tecnología en el futuro inmediato (tan inmediato como 2017) y que marcarán las agendas y las decisiones de las marcas.

La obsesión por los ‘superusuarios’

Cada vez se consumirán más contenidos y cada vez la tecnología estará más presente en ellos. De aquí a 2020 aumentará el tiempo que se dedica al gaming, a la mensajería (que según las previsiones crecerá mucho más rápido que las redes sociales), al vídeo online y hasta al audio online. Esto hará que los consumidores reciban muchos más estímulos que nunca y potenciará una realidad que ya está haciendo que las cosas no sean muy fáciles para las marcas.

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Fuente: “Tech & Media Outlook 2017”, Activate.

Los consumidores serán cada vez más multitarea. Los consumidores harán más cosas online y lo harán cada vez más de forma simultánea. Un 92% de esos encuestados que aseguran que utilizarán al mismo tiempo dos elementos distintos accederán de forma simultánea como mínimo a dos tipos de contenidos mediáticos. Y, además, no solo tendrán dos contenidos al mismo tiempo, sino que esos contenidos convivirán con una actividad más. El 99% de los multitaskers hacen algo mientras acceden todos esos contenidos. Un 89% estarán comiendo o bebiendo mientras, un 84% en transporte público, un 79% haciendo ejercicio y un 67% irá de compras. Todo ello hará que conseguir su atención sea más complicado que nunca.

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Fuente: “Tech & Media Outlook 2017”, Activate.

Por ello, las marcas se obsesionarán con captar su atención y, sobre todo, con captar la atención de ciertos perfiles concretos. Por un lado, se centrarán en los que se consideran ‘super usuarios’, que son aquellos que destinan más tiempo a consumir medios y que son quienes suelen tener cifras más elevadas de gasto relacionado. Igualmente, buscarán aquellos ‘unicornios de atención’, esas cosas que parecen imposibles de conseguir.

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Fuente: “Tech & Media Outlook 2017”, Activate.

El poder de las suscripciones

Durante los próximos años se espera que los ingresos derivados de la red crezcan y que lo hagan a un ritmo muy acelerado, por encima de otras tasas de crecimiento. ¿Y cuál va a ser la clave de este crecimiento? No serán los contenidos en sí los que generen este boom sino más bien el acceso a los mismos. La clave estará en cómo se accede a ellos y cómo se gestiona eso. Según sus datos, los modelos de suscripción seguirán siendo los modelos dominantes en acceso a contenidos (y, sí, puede parecer no muy creíble cuando se piensa en los periódicos online, pero no tanto cuando se piensa en Netflix) y será el motor de la mitad del crecimiento de los ingresos asociados a internet y sus consumidores.

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Fuente: “Tech & Media Outlook 2017”, Activate.

Lo impactante es que las previsiones apuntan a una progresiva desaparición de los modelos alternativos. El fremium, el modelo que permite acceder a los contenidos sin pagar recibiendo a cambio publicidad, desaparecerá progresivamente.

¿Quiénes están impulsando el boom de los modelos de suscripción? La clave está en el vídeo y en la música, que son quienes están potenciando estos modelos, y en los usuarios más jóvenes, en los que se está produciendo el crecimiento y quienes potenciarán el modelo.

Los gigantes están imponiendo un oligopolio

O lo que es lo mismo: las grandes compañías tecnológicas, las que dominan el mercado y las que tienen cada vez más peso entre los consumidores, están acaparando todo el proceso de compra. Están presentes en todas las etapas (algunas más, otras menos y algunas con más fortalezas y otras con menos), lo que les permite seguir al consumidor en todo momento y comprender todo lo que hacen y por qué. Son quienes tienen todo el conocimiento. Todo ello está cambiando el cómo se accede a la información y también el panorama de empresas e influencias. Las redes sociales y las búsquedas se han impuesto en la red y como plataforma para que los consumidores encuentren lo que quieren, lo que ha tenido un efecto directo sobre los demás jugadores.

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Fuente: “Tech & Media Outlook 2017”, Activate.

Los medios se están viendo arrinconados y exprimidos por ello y están perdiendo dominio en favor de estos formatos. No solo han perdido poder frente a ellos, sino que además sus propias decisiones de negocio están cada vez más ajustadas a lo que las empresas que dominan esos escenarios marcan. Es decir, los medios se pliegan ante el SEO y las redes sociales.

El interés por los bots

La batalla de los bots es una de las batallas para ganar la guerra de la mensajería. Y a la luz de eso se comprenden mucho mejor todas las decisiones que han tomado las grandes marcas en los últimos tiempos. En seis meses de 2016, todo el mundo parecía estar lanzando plataformas de bots y todas las grandes compañías tecnológicas hicieron algún anuncio o movimiento estratégico en ese terreno (con la previsión de que las cosas vayan a ir a más en los próximos meses). Lo hacen además aunque estas herramientas están aún en una fase muy inicial, en la que aún no se ha perfilado bien su funcionalidad y en la que aún queda mucho por trabajar en ellos. Las firmas tech no saben ni siquiera cómo van a rentabilizar este servicio.

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Fuente: “Tech & Media Outlook 2017”, Activate.

¿Por qué todas están entrando en este terreno? Porque lo que importa no es lo que ocurra ahora sino lo que ocurrirá después. La batalla de los bots es una batalla contra Facebook por un lado (es la firma que estaba vía compra, vía lanzamiento dominando el mercado de la mensajería) y es una batalla por otro para posicionarse en el mundo de la mensajería en general, para asentar posiciones. Los gigantes quieren asentar sus posiciones para ser quienes salgan más beneficiados. Unos no van a matar a otros, pero sí lograrán posicionarse mejor que los otros. Y quien esté mejor posicionado será quien tenga la mejor ubicación para dominar la relación con el consumidor y para ofrecer más servicios a terceros. Teniendo en cuenta que las previsiones son las de que en 2020 sea una realidad sólida y monetizable, lo que se haga ahora es más relevante que nunca.

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Fuente: “Tech & Media Outlook 2017”, Activate.

Los ‘esports’ son el próximo gran boom

¿Qué será la próxima cuestión que se convertirá en la gran favorita del mercado, la que hará que todo el mundo se vuelva medio loco y que todas las marcas apunten a por ello? La clave está en los deportes, pero no en los deportes a lo grande. La próxima gran tendencia serán los ‘esports’, es decir, los deportes a los que se juega online. Tienen una potencial audiencia mundial de 250 millones de personas, múltiples vías de monetización y una audiencia muy comprometida. Sus números van a ir creciendo y las previsiones son que, en un futuro próximo, prácticamente se doblen. En 2020 se espera que tengan una audiencia de unos 500 millones de personas, convirtiéndose en cada vez más relevantes (serán el 10% del tiempo dedicado a los deportes en EEUU, por ejemplo, en consumo de medios) y más interesantes para las grandes firmas (se espera que todas las grandes compañías de la red intenten hacer caja con ello).

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Fuente: “Tech & Media Outlook 2017”, Activate.

Al fin y al cabo, no solo tendrán audiencias millonarias, también empezarán a mover cantidades millonarias de dinero. En 2020 moverán 5.000 millones de dólares de forma directa (1.400 en Europa). De forma indirecta, las cantidades podrían subir y subir. En apuestas relacionadas, por ejemplo, se espera que lleguen a los 14.000 millones de dólares en 2020 (la estimación para cierre de 2016 es de solo 1.000 millones de dólares).

Esto hará que sean apetitosos ya pos si solos, pero además lograrán posicionarse muy bien entre las audiencias que las marcas buscan más y mejor, como son los millennials, lo que hará que sean aún más atractivos para las firmas que dominan la red y para las marcas que buscan oportunidades de contacto con los consumidores. Los patrocinios de esports crecerán, de hecho, un 40% en los próximos cuatro años.

Las cartas ya están repartidas en la televisión de pago

Malas noticias para las televisiones, que quizás se agarraban aún a la esperanza de que las cosas fuesen a cambiar en el futuro. No lo harán. Los contenidos a la carta, las plataformas de streaming y todas las alternativas digitales seguirán captando cada vez más y más la atención de los consumidores. La tele irá perdiendo horas y minutos de atención y los nuevos jugadores online se los irán llevando.

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Fuente: “Tech & Media Outlook 2017”, Activate.

En este panorama, las televisiones de pago no han perdido (al menos en Estados Unidos) exactamente su poder de atracción. Su caída no está siendo tan abrumadora, porque los consumidores, incluso los más jóvenes, quieren acceder a esos contenidos. Lo que están haciendo los jóvenes es no acceder a ellos de forma lineal, sino usando contraseñas y el acceso de los nuevos servicios ‘everywhere’ (los que permiten acceder a los contenidos de la tele bajo demanda online). Lo que hacen es compartir contraseñas. ¿Cuándo empezarán a pagar esos contenidos? Lo harán en cuanto no puedan compartir las contraseñas.

Esto crea una oportunidad de mercado, pero una en la que no juegan y dominan realmente quienes estaban dominando. Quienes han entrado son nuevos jugadores que han creado alternativas para la red y para esos consumidores y en donde entrarán otros jugadores similares (las previsiones son las de que lo hagan Google/YouTube, Amazon y Apple). Por ello, estos servicios lograrán conectar con estos nuevos consumidores que buscan precios distintos, calidades diferentes y experiencias que se separan de lo que hay hasta ahora. Teniendo en cuenta lo que está ocurriendo ahora y quién está haciendo qué (y cómo), no es difícil visualizar quienes serán los ganadores en la batalla final de los contenidos.

El vídeo en streaming va a tener que reinventarse

El VoD es uno de los grandes protagonistas de todos los artículos sobre la muerte de la televisión y los cambios en las costumbres y en los hábitos de los consumidores. Estos servicios han crecido mucho y han conectado igualmente mucho con cierto grupo de consumidores, pero de cara al futuro tendrán que ser capaces de salir de esa zona de confort. Como apunta el analista, no tendrán más remedio que lanzarse a la conquista de nuevos mercados y de franjas de edad más maduras. Es decir, para mantener este ritmo de crecimento y para no desacelerarse tendrán que captar a consumidores que van más allá de los jóvenes.

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Fuente: “Tech & Media Outlook 2017”, Activate.

Hacerlo no es fácil. Una de las maneras que estos servicios tienen de captar a nuevos consumidores es la de compartir contraseñas, pero esto suele hacerse dentro del entorno familiar, lo que hace que en realidad no se salga a nuevos consumidores, que no se amplie el círculo. A esto hay que sumar que las cosas se van a complicar un tanto, ya que los consumidores empezarán a picotear y no será rato tener varios servicios de VoD de forma simultánea (las firmas que operan aquí tendrán que competir por ser quienes logran convertirse en el que los consumidores ven como el básico, el que tiene que ir por defecto; ahora esa capacidad la ocupa Netflix).

En esta batalla no les quedará más remedio que luchar por tener contenidos exclusivos (lo que hará que existan muchas más peleas de derechos) y por afianzar su propia estrategia de producción de contenidos (lo que hará que sean cada vez menos agregadores de contenidos de terceros y cada vez más productores de contenidos propios). En este último punto, los consumidores valoran cada vez más esto, lo que hace que los contenidos únicos y exclusivos sean cada vez más y más valiosos.

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Fuente: “Tech & Media Outlook 2017”, Activate.

Su futuro podría pasar además por otros puntos importantes, como por ejemplo los deportes, en los que podrían entrar a competir por los derechos de admisión cuando los contratos actuales expiren.

La música no funciona por grandes exclusivas

Para la música, el mayor porcentaje de ingresos ligados a reproducción en streaming viene ya de la música bajo demanda (a lo Spotify) y además de los formatos de pago. Si al principio los formatos freemium eran los que se llevaban la mayoría del mercado, ahora el 51% de los ingresos llega desde los formatos de pago (será el 67% a cierre de 2016 y el 78% en 2020). Su peso no solo será crucial en lo que respecta a internet sino también en lo que respecta a la industria de la música en general. Se espera que los ingresos de la industria empiecen a repuntar tras años de primero caída y luego estancamiento gracias a los servicios de música bajo demanda.

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Fuente: “Tech & Media Outlook 2017”, Activate.

¿Quiénes se llevarán el mercado? Se podría decir quién. El ganador será – o está siendo ya – Spotify, a pesar de que sus consumidores juegan al contenido exclusivo. Si gana Spotify es porque los consumidores no valoran tanto lo exclusivo como la experiencia de usuario y, sobre todo, el tiempo pasado en ese servicio. Una vez que los consumidores han creado sus listas de reproducción, que dejen el servicio es muy difícil. Si a eso se suma que millones (700 de forma más exacta) de usuarios no escuchan canciones ‘comerciales’ sino lo que se conoce como ‘música gris’ (sesiones, directos, mezclas…) se puede ver la foto completa. Que se incorpore ese contenido puede ser lo que marque la diferencia (y lo que hace, por ejemplo, que ahora mismo se escuche tanta música en YouTube).

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Fuente: “Tech & Media Outlook 2017”, Activate.

A todo esto, hay que sumar otras corrientes que están cambiando el audio. Por un lado, están los cambios tecnológicos, como la aparición de los altavoces smart, que están cambiando cómo se escucha música. Por otro, está la irrupción de nuevos formatos en las listas de popularidad, como es el caso de los podcasts, cada vez más y más populares (tanto que ya hay más oyentes semanales de podcasts que personas que ven la gala de los Oscar).

El hogar tradicional se ha acabado

A todo ello hay que sumar una tendencia que, aunque no es de medios o de tecnología, está teniendo un impacto directo sobre cómo se accede a los mismos. El hogar tradicional ha acabado. Ahora los hogares y las familias son mucho más complejos. No solo la propia estructura de la familia en sí ha cambiado, sino también lo que el ciudadano considera cercano, próximo.

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Fuente: “Tech & Media Outlook 2017”, Activate.

Ya no solo hay la familia ‘familiar’, sino también círculos cercanos que podrían ser la familia ‘social’. Todos ellos son muy importantes para el consumidor y cambian cómo accede a las cosas y cómo usa la tecnología.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. What’s Next for Tech and Media in 2017. 26 de octubre de 2016 [Consultado 02-11-2016]. Disponible en: http://www.wsj.com/articles/activates-michael-wolf-predicts-whats-next-for-tech-and-media-in-2017-1477436031

PUROMARKETING. Las 9 tendencias que cambiarán el futuro inmediato de los medios y de la tecnología. 31 de octubre de 2016 [Consultado 02-11-2016]. Disponible en: http://www.puromarketing.com/12/27890/tendencias-cambiaran-futuro-inmediato-medios-tecnologia.html

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