¿Cómo de profunda será la Cuarta Revolución Industrial?

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  • Estamos viviendo una cascada de novedades tal que el resultado es una transformación radical de muchas industrias con la entrada de nuevos competidores.
  • Asistimos a una época en la que las barreras entre el mundo físico y el digital son más confusas y el consumidor está siempre conectado.
  • Una de las consecuencias económicas de tanta innovación disruptiva es que el eje del sistema se desplaza desde la oferta a la demanda. Los consumidores han tomado el mando en las relaciones comerciales.
  • Un tercio de los ejecutivos españoles admite que su empresa “se transformará en otra significativamente diferente” en los próximos tres años.
  • La transformación digital que vivimos podría ser comparada con la transición que hubo desde una sociedad agraria a una sociedad industrial.

Asistimos a una nueva revolución industrial. Los avances tecnológicos y científicos se suceden a una velocidad de vértigo. Su impacto no se limita a mejorar los productos y servicios existentes; el proceso innovador actual tiene un calado disruptivo, es decir, se están cambiando las reglas de juego en múltiples ámbitos. La robotización a gran escala, el big data, los teléfonos inteligentes, las fintech, el Internet de las cosas, la secuenciación del genoma humano, el bitcoin, las energías verdes, las plataformas digitales de intercambio entre particulares… En menos de una década el mundo ha asistido a una cascada de novedades tal que el resultado es una transformación radical de muchas industrias con la entrada de nuevos competidores.

A lo largo de la historia ha habido muchos momentos disruptivos por los avances técnicos. La diferencia del momento actual es la velocidad a la que se suceden los cambios, una velocidad jamás vista”, sostiene Joao Saint-Aubyn, experto de Roland Berger, quien participó recientemente en unas jornadas organizadas por Cre100do. La primera revolución industrial trajo innovaciones mecánicas como la máquina de vapor o el ferrocarril; la segunda supuso la producción en masa a través de la electrificación; la tercera popularizo los ordenadores e Internet. “Ahora estamos a las puertas de la cuarta revolución industrial, que estaría caracterizada por la conectividad de los dispositivos, las comunicaciones móviles, las redes sociales y la inteligencia artificial. Se trata de una época en la que las barreras entre el mundo físico y el digital son más confusas y el consumidor está siempre conectado”, describe Guillermo Padilla, socio responsable de Management Consulting en KPMG.

Uno de los rasgos característicos del momento disruptivo actual es que se trata de una revolución principalmente en el ámbito de la información. Los datos son el ingrediente esencial de las empresas y de la economía. “Esa es la diferencia: no es un proyecto, proceso o innovación tecnológica simple. De hecho, se está gestando desde hace años, con la informatización de procesos primero, y con Internet, después. Ahora lo que ocurre es que todos esos avances tecnológicos se están democratizado y eso lo hace global, poderoso y, en muchos aspectos aún incierto sobre quién ganará en cada sector, con qué tecnologías y con qué avances”, indica Santiago Carbó, catedrático de Economía de la Bangor University (Reino Unido) e investigador de Funcas.

Una de las consecuencias económicas de tanta innovación disruptiva es que el eje del sistema se desplaza desde la oferta a la demanda. Los consumidores han tomado el mando en las relaciones comerciales. Además, hay un cambio sociológico, casi cultural, por el cual se está abandonando aquella idea burguesa según la cual la mejor forma de mostrar un determinado estatus es con la posesión de objetos materiales. Estos dos factores, junto al desarrollo tecnológico de plataformas digitales que ponen en contacto a los consumidores, están detrás del fenómeno de la economía colaborativa. Los expertos de PwC prevén que los ingresos de la denominada como sharing economy pasen de la cifra actual que apenas supera los 15.000 millones de dólares a 335.000 millones en 2025.

El próximo trienio será más decisivo que los 50 años anteriores

Ya no hay verdades absolutas. Todo está sujeto a revisión. Las grietas en el ‘statu quo’ hace que los directivos estén muy preocupados. Esta sensibilidad a la transformación disruptiva que viene de la mano de la tecnología queda patente en la última encuesta realizada por KPMG el pasado mes de junio. Este trabajo, bajo el título Global CEO Outlook señala que los próximos tres años traerán consigo una transformación sin precedentes y serán mucho más decisivos para la evolución de la economía que los 50 anteriores. Así lo cree el 78% de los consejeros delegados españoles (el 72% a nivel global).

Información relacionada en Thinknowa:

Con la creencia que se debe actuar “ahora o nunca”, casi siete de cada diez ejecutivos de todo el mundo admiten su preocupación por tener que abordar asuntos ante los que tienen poca experiencia, como la transformación digital de la compañía o la adecuación de sus negocios a los nuevos gustos y exigencias de los consumidores.

Un tercio de los ejecutivos españoles admite que su empresa “se transformará en otra significativamente diferente” en los próximos tres años. Un mayor foco en el cliente, el uso de sistemas de análisis de datos y tecnología cognitiva en sus organizaciones, así como la lealtad de los consumidores y la ciberseguridad son algunos de los temas que más les preocupan.

El intercambio entre particulares de bienes y servicios están poniendo contra las cuerdas a las empresas tradicionales en sectores como el turismo, el transporte, el ocio, las finanzas o la música. Airbnb, por ejemplo, oferta tres veces más camas que el mayor de los grupos hoteleros, mientras que Uber se ha convertido en solo cinco años de vida en la mayor red transporte del mundo.

Un apoyo millonario

Los expertos creen que la potencia de tiro de la economía colaborativa acabará entrando en otros negocios como el material deportivo, la joyería, el sector textil o el calzado. “Los negocios de la sharing economy reciben más financiación por parte del venture capital [capital riesgo para empresas en su fase inicial] que cualquier otra actividad, superando a las redes sociales en los últimos años. Desde 2009 han captado financiación por valor de 23.000 millones. Este respaldo económico crea una fuerza disruptiva en numerosos sectores”, advierte Solange Le Jeune, analista de la gestora de fondos Schroders.

Las empresas tradicionales se ven desbordadas porque los gustos de sus clientes han cambiado y porque los nuevos competidores no son sus pares, sino recién llegados cuyo ADN es 100% digital. Un caso evidente de agitación transformadora tiene como campo batalla el sector financiero. El auge del crowdfunding —el Banco Mundial estima que moverá 90.000 millones en 2020— y el desarrollo de las fintech (empresas tecnológicas que ofrecen servicios financieros) meten presión a los bancos de toda la vida. “La disrupción es algo traumático porque conlleva una transformación profunda. En el sector financiero la combinación de diferentes factores están generando una ruptura en la cadena de valor”, reconocía Álvaro Martín, jefe de regulación digital en BBVA Research, durante su intervención en el evento de Cre100do. “Hay que escuchar a los millennials, incluso copiar lo que han hecho con éxito otras empresas. Se requiere un cambio de cultura y un punto de humildad porque un cambio tan profundo no lo vas a poder hacer tú solo”, reconoce Martín.

La inversión en nuevas tecnologías relacionadas con el sector financiero ha crecido de manera exponencial en los últimos años, pasando de 1.800 millones de dólares en 2010 a 19.000 millones en 2015. La mayor parte de este dinero se ha concentrado de momento en el área de pagos. A pesar de toda esta inversión y la continua especulación sobre la extinción de los bancos, de momento solo un 1% de los ingresos en banca de consumo ha migrado hacia modelos digitales. “Aunque las compañías fintech tienen ventaja en todo lo relacionado con la innovación, los bancos tradicionales todavía tienen a su favor su escala. No hemos llegado al punto de inflexión de la disrupción digital. Sin embargo, dado el crecimiento de la inversión en fintech, esta situación no va a continuar por mucho tiempo”, reconoce Kathleen Boyle, analista de Citi, en un informe.

El automovilístico es otro sector abocado a una profunda transformación por los avances tecnológicos. Barclays calcula que la demanda de coches podría caer hasta en un 40% a medio plazo. “Muchos jóvenes no necesitan coche. Un vehículo compartido puede sustituir a ocho coches individuales. El concepto de movilidad a demanda, el uso del vehículo entre varias personas y la conducción automática ya están poniendo a prueba a la industria al romper la cadena de valor”, subraya Saint-Aubyn.

Mortalidad empresarial

La disrupción tecnológica ha tenido un primer impacto visible y es que la longevidad media de las empresas se ha dividido por tres en los últimos 50 años. Además, cada vez es más breve el liderazgo de una compañía en la clasificación global de beneficios o de ventas como consecuencia del acortamiento en los ciclos de innovación. “Una empresa que no asuma su transformación profunda y permanente como la herramienta fundamental para asegurar su competitividad ante la globalización de los mercados, no podrá mantener su posición de liderazgo”, advierten desde la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid en el estudio Sectores de la nueva economía.

Las compañías tradicionales suelen tener dos tipos de reacciones ante la amenaza de los nuevos competidores digitales. La primera de ellas es presionar a los Gobiernos para que impongan barreras de entrada. Los expertos consultados, sin embargo, creen que es imposible poner puertas al campo. “Se equivocan aquellos que quieren reaccionar ante la innovación con más regulación. Las normas nunca han solucionado nada en momentos de cambio salvo aquellas que han servido para garantizar la salud y las condiciones de vida de los trabajadores”, recuerda Josep Valor, profesor de Sistemas de la Información en IESE.

La otra reacción de las compañías de la vieja economía está siendo aplicar aquel axioma que recomienda unirse al enemigo sino se puede con él, es decir, sacar el talonario y comprar (a precio de oro) aquellas startups que en un futuro pueden hacerles sombra. “Habrá fusiones, adquisiciones, joint ventures… Pero ojo, comprar una empresa en sí mismo no vale de nada, lo que trae la disrupción es todo lo que viene después. La clave es cambiar la cultura y generar un entorno donde el talento pueda emerger”, avisa Carlos Emilio Gómez, directivo de Waze Europe, compañía de Google.

Además de en las empresas, la innovación disruptiva a la que asistimos también tienen un impacto importante en numerosas variables económicas, desde la productividad, pasando por el empleo, el déficit o las tasas de crecimiento. “La transformación digital que vivimos podría ser comparada con la transición que hubo desde una sociedad agraria a una sociedad industrial”, subrayan los expertos de Pioneer en un informe titulado Invertir en un mundo disruptivo.

Desde esta gestora de fondos recuerdan que la economía mundial atraviesa un momento donde la mayor parte de los países sufren un exceso de endeudamiento. Una posible solución para reducir esa pesada carta sería aumentar el ritmo de crecimiento y así reducir el monto de la deuda en relación con el PIB. La otra solución pasaría por generar inflación. Sin embargo, muchas de las innovaciones que se están implantando son altamente desinflacionistas. “Los objetivos de precios se popularizaron en los años 70 después de la crisis petrolera para dar a los agentes económicos alguna certidumbre. Muchos bancos centrales tienen como mandato situar la inflación por debajo del 2%, pero debemos plantearnos si estos objetivos siguen siendo relevantes”, dicen enPioneer.

Aquellos que sostienen la tesis de que, tras la crisis financiera, la economía mundial ha entrado en una fase de estancamiento secular —caracterizada por bajo crecimiento y débil incremento de los precios— sostienen que las innovaciones que se están desarrollando no tienen el mismo poder de generar crecimiento que anteriores avances tecnológicos como la máquina de vapor o la automoción. “La paradoja de esta gran transformación es que no parece que de momento se hayan producido cambios suficientes como para hablar de una revolución económica clásica, con aumento del empleo y grandes expansiones. Es más un enorme cambio cualitativo que irá produciendo efectos en cada industria conforme la tecnología se imponga y se adopte. Esto está ocurriendo al mismo tiempo que en las economías avanzadas muchos ciudadanos se enfrentan a una pérdida de calidad en su empleo y a más desigualdades. El ajuste no va a ser sencillo ni cómodo”, admite Santiago Carbó.

El empleo es, sin duda, una de las variables que más se está poniendo a prueba con la concatenación de avances tecnológicos. Es cierto que la innovación generará una demanda de profesionales en nuevos campos, pero desarrollos como la robotización o la inteligencia artificial tienen un impacto evidente en aquellas industrias más intensivas en mano de obra. “La tecnología debe entenderse como un motor de crecimiento. En términos de empleo, por ejemplo, la innovación no puede concebirse como una amenaza. Es cierto que en algunas áreas determinadas las nuevas herramientas digitales pueden suplantar a los trabajos más mecánicos, pero esta transformación hará necesarios nuevos perfiles profesionales con otras cualificaciones”, concluye Guillermo Padilla, de KPMG.

El reto de formarse para trabajos que aún no existen

El Foro Económico Mundial publicó el pasado mes de enero un estudio sobre el impacto que las tecnologías disruptivas tendrán en el mercado laboral. Los cambios introducidos por los avances científicos y técnicos provocan que hoy en día las especialidades más demandas en la mayoría de mercados no existiesen hace una década. Y es una tendencia que, lejos de pararse, va a coger velocidad: “Alrededor del 65% de los niños que está hoy en la escuela primaria terminarán dedicándose a disciplinas que hoy todavía ni se imaginan”.

Los expertos del Foro avisan de que las transformaciones científicas y técnicas que se están encadenando tendrán un impacto neto cifrado en la desaparición de 5,1 millones de puestos de trabajo a nivel mundial entre 2015 y 2020. Por un lado, se esfumarán 7,1 millones de puestos en lo que ellos denominan “white collar funcions”, es decir trabajos de oficina y actividades administrativas. De otra parte, la fuerza laboral se incrementará en dos millones de empleos en áreas vinculadas a la informática, las matemáticas, la arquitectura y la ingeniería.

Hay dos actividades que serán críticas en el mercado dentro de cinco años. La primera tiene que ver con el análisis de datos. Es una actividad donde las compañías tienen puestas muchas esperanzas para ayudarlas a interpretar el torrente de información que generan las tecnologías disruptivas. La otra actividad que tendrá una gran demanda los comerciales especializados ya que tendrán que vender a sus clientes productos y servicios con los que aún no están familiarizados”.

KPMG. Global CEO Outlook 2016. Junio de 2016 [consultado 04-07-2016]. Disponible en: https://home.kpmg.com/es/es/home/campaigns/2016/06/ceo-outlook.html

EL PAIS. La tecnología zarandea el ‘statu quo’ económico. 14 de agosto de 2016 [consultado 16-08-2016]. Disponible en: http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2016/08/12/actualidad/1470992992_354684.html

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