El futuro de la conducción autónoma puesto en cuestión tras el primer accidente mortal

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CLAVES:

  • Los coches matan a más de 30.000 personas al año solo en Estados Unidos, y este argumento es utilizado frecuentemente por los fabricantes de coches autónomos para defender su modelo.
  • Pero aunque los coches autónomos sean más seguros que los convencionales, se seguirán viendo envueltos en accidentes. Ningún software es perfecto.
  • Este ha sido el caso de un vehículo Tesla que, esta semana, se ha visto involucrado en un accidente mortal en Estados Unidos.
  • Google ha intentado tomar distancia, explicando que sus vehículos incorporan sensores mucho más sofisticados y que, a diferencia de Tesla, creen que el conductor humano no debe intervenir en ningún momento.
  • Tesla señaló en su comunicado que se trata de la primera fatalidad ocurrida en los más de 208 millones de kilómetros que se han recorrido con Autopilot.
  • Muchos expertos creen que es posible que este accidente de paso a una regulación más estricta sobre los vehículos autónomos.

Los coches matan a más de 30.000 personas al año solo en Estados Unidos. Las empresas que trabajan en la conducción autónoma, como Telsa y Google, emplean esta cifra a menudo para argumentar que cualquier tecnología que pueda reducir significativamente los siniestros en carretera se merece una seria atención.

Pero aunque los coches autónomos sean más seguros que los convencionales, se seguirán viendo envueltos en accidentes. Ningún software es perfecto. Y según maduren las tecnologías de conducción autónoma, los reguladores y la sociedad al completo tendrán que decidir cuán seguros deberán ser estos vehículos. De hecho, se ha llegado a argumentar que en algunas situaciones los vehículos autónomos han de ser programados para escoger activamente a qué personas hacer daño.

Información relacionada en Knowbox:

Esas espinosas cuestiones se vuelven esta semana más concretas con la noticia de que Tesla está siendo investigada por la Administración Nacional de Seguridad del Transporte en Carretera de Estados Unidos (NHTSA, por sus siglas en inglés) tras un accidente mortal en el que el sistema Autopilot estuvo involucrado. Este sistema de conducción autónoma es capaz cambiar de carril y regular la velocidad durante la conducción en autopista en algunos de los modelos de la automovilística.

En Florida (EEUU) en mayo, un sedán Modelo S de Tesla envistió a un remolque que cruzaba la carretera mientras el sistema controlaba el coche. Ni Autopilot ni el conductor pisaron el freno. En una actualización de blog publicada el pasado jueves, Tesla Motors explicó que Autopilot no registró el lateral blanco del remolque contra el fondo del despejado cielo azul.

El sistema es capaz de dirigir el coche, detectar obstáculos y demarcaciones de carril y accionar el freno, todo de forma autónoma. Pero está mucho menos capacitado que un humano y carece de la sofisticación y de los sensores de alta resolución de los que disponen otros proyectos de conducción autónoma más maduros como el de Google.

Tesla ha sido criticada por promocionar la comodidad de Autopilot (cuyo nombre sugiere que no requiere ninguna intervención humana) al tiempo que sostiene que los conductores han de estar preparados para intervenir y asumir el control de la conducción en cualquier momento. Los líderes del proyecto de coches autónomos de Google, Chris Urmson, ha dicho que los experimentos de la empresa han demostrado que no se puede depender de los conductores humanos de esa manera, porque se confían rápidamente de que el coche sabe lo que hace. Igualmente, el CEO de Tesla, Elon Musk, ha dicho que los datos de su empresa sugieren que Autopilot es dos veces más seguro que los conductores humanos.

El comunicado de Tesla sobre lo acontecido enfatiza que el conductor sabía que siempre debía mantener un ojo puesto en lo que hacía Autopilot. Pero si la NHTSA concluye que el diseño de Autopilot tuvo la culpa, Tesla podría enfrentarse a una retirada del producto, o simplificar la prestación. Eso podría dañar tanto a Tesla como al entusiasmo acerca de estas tecnologías en general.

Sea cual sea el resultado de la investigación de la NHTSA, el incidente supone una oportunidad para considerar los estándares que apliquemos al software de conducción autónoma y a las empresas que lo diseñan. Si la conducción autónoma acaba siendo adoptada de forma masiva, tendremos que aceptar que acabará estando involucrada en accidentes, que podrían llegar a ser mortales, y que podrían ser culpa de la propia ineficiencia de los sistemas.

Los conductores humanos fijan un listón muy bajo: alrededor del 90% de los accidentes son causados por errores humanos, y errores estúpidos como conducir mientras se escriba un mensaje en el móvil o conducir ebrio matan a demasiadas personas. Resulta fácil pensar que las máquinas podrían subir el listón. Pero decidir cuán mejores han de ser resultará mucho más complicado.

Sea como fuere, el incidente inevitablemente suscitará preguntas acerca del rendimiento de la tecnología y la manera en la que los conductores la gestionan. La industria automovilística la observará de cerca para comprobar cómo transforma las regulaciones e influye en la percepción pública sobre las tecnologías de conducción autónoma. Se espera que la agencia publique nuevas directrices sobre las pruebas de vehículos autónomos este mes.

El director de comunicaciones de Mobileye, Dan Galves, cuya empresa proporciona software de procesamiento de imágenes para Tesla y otros fabricantes, afirma que su tecnología no fue diseñada para lidiar con el tipo de obstáculo que parece haber provocado el accidente bajo investigación actualmente. “Las tecnologías actuales de anticolisión, o de frenado de emergencia automático, están definidas como anticolisión trasera y están diseñadas específicamente para ello. Este incidente involucró a un vehículo que cruzaba lateralmente“, explica.

Bosch, que proporciona tecnologías automovilísticas incluidos algunos componentes para la conducción autónoma, dijo que los beneficios de la automatización harían que los progresos de la tecnología sean inevitables. La empresa afirma en un comunicado: “Seguimos estando convencidos de que la introducción gradual de vehículos autónomos puede realizar una importante aportación a [los esfuerzos por] mejorar de la seguridad en carretera. La conducción autónoma se avecina, no de la noche a la mañana, sino de forma gradual“.

Las preocupaciones de seguridad pueden resultar extremadamente dañinas para las automovilísticas. Audi tardó más de una década en recuperar su reputación tras un problema con “una repentina aceleración” en algunos vehículos durante la década de 1980. Pero a Tesla se le conoce por explorar nuevas tecnologías de forma agresiva, y muchos de sus clientes se sienten entusiasmados por el hecho de encontrarse en la vanguardia de la innovación automovilística. La empresa también tiene la capacidad de resolver problemas rápidamente con las actualizaciones de sus vehículos mediante los enlace de datos móviles que incorporan sus vehículos.

Tesla señaló en su comunicado que se trata de la primera fatalidad ocurrida en los más de 208 millones de kilómetros que se han recorrido con Autopilot activo, en comparación con una víctima mortal por cada 150 millones de kilómetros de conducción convencional. Es una burda comparación, ya que Autopilot sólo está diseñado para ser empleado para la conducción en autopista bajo determinadas condiciones. También podría demostrarse irrelevante en caso de determinar la NHTSA que Autopilot tuvo la culpa.

Este accidente es un trágico recuerdo de las muy importantes barreras técnicas y sociales a las que se enfrentan los vehículos autónomos“, según el profesor adjunto de la Escuela Sloan de Negocios del MIT David Keith que estudia la industria automovilística. “Controlar un automóvil de forma segura en todas las situaciones de conducción posibles es una tarea enormemente compleja y los algoritmos aún no la han dominado“.

Keith añade: “La NHTSA ha sido relativamente poco intervencionista en cuanto a los vehículos autónomos hasta la fecha, y desde luego es posible que este accidente de paso a una regulación más estricta de lo que constituye la operación segura de estos vehículos semiautónomos“.

MIT TECHNOLOGY REVIEW. El futuro de la conducción autónoma pende del primer accidente mortal de Tesla. 5 de julio de 2016 [Consultado 05-07-2016]. Disponible en: http://www.technologyreview.es/robotica/50677/el-futuro-de-la-conduccion-autonoma-pende-del/

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