La inteligencia artificial todavía está muy lejos de ser una realidad

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CLAVES:

  • Lo que hoy llamamos inteligencia artificial, son en realidad dispositivos con inteligencias específicas. No logran comprender procesos globales.
  • Según muchos expertos, la inteligencia artificial no está a la vuelta de la esquina. Podríamos tardar muchas décadas en crear sistemas que puedan dialogar con semántica profunda.
  • En un ámbito particular, por ejemplo el bancario, sí es posible crear bots que conversen de forma más o menos inteligente. Pero si cambian los términos la máquina no puede procesar respuesta.
  • Otro reto fundamental de la inteligencia artificial es la ética y la regulación. De hecho, son muchos los intelectuales y expertos a nivel mundial que reclaman afrontar esta cuestión.
  • La última iniciativa es la emprendida por la filial de Google, Alphabet, y Amazon, Facebook, IBM y Microsoft; que pretenden crear un estándar ético global para la inteligencia artificial.

Se habla de que en 30 años las máquinas serán más inteligentes que nosotros.  Que serán superiores. La realidad es que lo que desarrollamos hoy en día son inteligencias específicas. El sistema hace una tarea y la realiza muy bien, mejor incluso que un humano: hay sistemas que diagnostican mejor que un médico, pero no tienen conocimientos generales de la medicina, o nos ganan en un juego muy concreto, pero no saben jugar a ningún juego más. La inteligencia artificial no está a la vuelta de la esquina“. Ramón López de Mántaras, director del Instituto de Investigación en Inteligencia Artificial del CSIC, es tajante cuando habla del potencial de la IA. Desde su despacho en la Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona matiza los avances de la disciplina científica que desarrolla programas informáticos para emular a los humanos en el aprendizaje y el razonamiento lógico.

El sentido común, explica López de Mántaras, es el caballo de batalla de la inteligencia artificial. “El diálogo ‘pregunta-respuesta’ general y con conversación semántica profunda no diría que es imposible, pero lo veo a muy largo plazo; hablo de décadas. Hay algoritmos específicos que son capaces de hacer un montón de cosas distintas pero independientes entre ellos”, remacha el físico.

El investigador destaca que en un ámbito particular, por ejemplo el bancario, si es posible una conversación inteligente. “Si un 90% de las personas van a hablar de términos relacionados con la banca en, por ejemplo, una web, la máquina va a poder representar y anticipar los conceptos que van a aparecer en el diálogo, relacionarlos entre sí y darles una profundidad semántica. A partir de ahí el robot va a poder tener una conversación que se puede llamar inteligente. Pero si cambian los términos esa máquina no va a darte ninguna respuesta. Cuando sales del marco específico se acabó la conversación”, subraya.

El problema aparece cuando los conceptos son generales, según el director de inteligencia artificial del CSIC: “Dos ejemplos: el traductor de Google, por un lado, es pura estadística, por eso es un sistema bastante estúpido y frágil y algunas de sus traducciones son desastrosas. Por otro lado, en visión artificial tampoco existe un razonamiento y por eso cuando, por ejemplo, le decimos a una máquina que nos interprete la imagen de un bebé con un cepillo de dientes delante de la cara nos va a decir que es un bebé sujetando un bate de béisbol. Hay millones de fotografías de niños con bates de béisbol en internet, es la foto infalible y el sistema es lo que aprende. Es la fragilidad del sistema basado en un análisis de datos masivos”.

¿Y dónde es menos frágil la inteligencia artificial? El investigador destaca dos áreas: los sistemas de aprendizaje por refuerzo -la logística, con sus cadenas de montaje por ejemplo- y el aprendizaje inductivo -el robot va a reconocer sillas: aunque sea un tipo de sillas que no ha visto nunca las identifica por unas características comunes, tiene la capacidad de generalización-.

En visión y lenguaje la inteligencia artificial avanza menos pues se necesitan demasiados ejemplos para aprender. Es muy complicada la percepción y la comunicación dado que las máquinas no tienen conocimiento implícito ni vivencias: “El aprendizaje basado en análisis de datos masivos funciona cuando se trabaja con millones de ejemplos: un sistema reconoce un gato porque ha visto millones de gatos, a un niño le basta verlo una vez para saber que es un gato”, añade López de Mántaras.

Ética de la inteligencia artificial

El físico se muestra duro con el aura que rodea a la IA: “Cuando hablamos de inteligencia artificial hablamos de inteligencias muy específicas. No es lo que vemos en las películas ni lo que escuchamos: los que hablan de posthumanismo como consecuencia de la singularidad tecnológica no saben muy bien de lo que hablan pues ninguno de los que venden la idea de que nos vamos a quedar obsoletos es experto en inteligencia artificial. No estoy en absoluto de acuerdo en que la inteligencia artificial es el fin de la Humanidad”.

La ética también preocupa al investigador que resalta que es importante una regulación y tomar decisiones valientes. “Deberíamos prohibir los bots que compran y venden en bolsa en cuestión de milisegundos o menos, porque se apoderan del sistema y los traders humanos no tienen nada que hacer”.

Ya hay empresas con diferentes softwares que compiten entre ellas y es inaceptable que se adueñen de las líneas de comunicación saturándolas para que no pueda entrar el software de la competencia. También expulsan al comprador humano. Son muy peligrosos y desestabilizan la economía”, advierte.

Mientras espera una regulación, su equipo en el CSIC -formado por 60 personas- sigue trabajando en un único sistema que consiga integrar todas las capacidades de la inteligencia para que los robots desempeñen tareas cada vez más complejas.

¿Se puede regular la inteligencia artificial?

El auge de los robots ha puesto encima de la mesa el temor de las personas a perder sus puesto de trabajo. También que se pregunten si las máquinas van a ser incontrolables y van a ir en contra de los humanos.  Un miedo que ha llevado a que cinco gigantes tecnológicos quieran crear un estándar de ética la inteligencia artificial (IA). Los investigadores de la matriz de Google, Alphabet, y los de Amazon, Facebook, IBM y Microsoft se han reunido para discutir las cuestiones más tangibles, tales como el impacto de la IA en el empleo, el transporte e incluso la guerra.

Las compañías tecnológicas han hecho durante mucho tiempo promesas exageradas de lo que podrían hacer las máquinas de inteligencia artificial. El cine reforzada estos sueños. Aunque ya no es ciencia ficción. En los últimos años, el campo de la IA ha ido evolucionando rápidamente en muchas áreas, desde los automóviles y máquinas de auto-conducción que reaccionan al habla humana, como el dispositivo Eco de Amazon, hasta una nueva fabricación de armas que amenazan con automatizar el combate.

En julio de 2015 un millar de expertos, entre los que se encontraban el físico Stephen Hawking, el cofundador de Apple Steve Wozniak, Elon Musk, fundador de Tesla y cocreador de PayPal, el lingüista Noam Chomsky o Demis Hassabis, jefe ejecutivo de la compañía de inteligencia artificial de Google firmaban un manifiesto  en el que alertaban de los peligros de la inteligencia artificial y pedían su regulación.

Un año después -aunque los detalles de lo que la industria va a hacer o decir  aún está por concretar- parece claro que las grandes compañías tecnológicas buscan garantizar que la investigación en IA se centre en beneficiar a las personas, no en hacerles daño.

La importancia del esfuerzo de la industria ha derivado en un informe publicado por un grupo de expertos de la Universidad de Stanford liderado por Eric Horvitz, investigador de Microsoft. El proyecto de Stanford Estudio de cien años de Inteligencia Artificial, traza un plan para redactar cada cinco años, durante el próximo siglo, un informe detallado sobre el impacto de la IA en la sociedad.

No estamos diciendo que no debe haber ninguna regulación”, ha señalado Peter Stone, experto informático de la Universidad de Texas, en Austin, y uno de los autores del informe de Stanford. “Estamos diciendo que hay una manera correcta y una manera incorrecta de actuar”.

Como destaca el diario estadounidense, no es la primera vez que los gigantes tecnológicos, habitualmente protagonistas de una competencia feroz, se ponen de acuerdo en algo: en la década los 90, por ejemplo, las empresas tecnológicas crearon un método estándar para la encriptación de las transacciones de comercio electrónico, sentando las bases para dos décadas de crecimiento en los negocios de Internet.

Los autores del informe de Stanford Inteligencia Artificial y la vida en 2030, argumentan que será imposible regular la IA. “El consenso del estudio coincide en que los intentos para regular la IA en general serían erróneos, ya que no existe una definición clara de lo que es la IA (no es una sola cosa), y los riesgos y consideraciones a tener en cuenta son muy diferentes en los diferentes dominios”, señala el informe.

Una de las recomendaciones del informe es aumentar la sensibilización y la experiencia en IA en todos los niveles de gobierno, explica Stone en el periódico norteamericano. También se pide un aumento del gasto público y privado en IA.

El Gobierno tiene su papel del gobierno y nosotros lo respetamos”, recalca David Kenny, director general de la división Watson de inteligencia artificial de IBM. “El reto es que muchas veces la política retrasa la tecnología”.

Se ha distribuido un memorando entre las cinco empresas para intentar anunciar la creación de la nueva organización a mediados de septiembre. Uno de los problemas no resueltos es que Google DeepMind, una filial de Alphabet, no quiere participar.

Por otra parte, Reid Hoffman, fundador de LinkedIn con experiencia en inteligencia artificial, está en conversaciones con el Laboratorio de Medios del Instituto Tecnológico de Massachusetts (MIT) para financiar un proyecto de exploración de los efectos sociales y económicos de la inteligencia artificial. Tanto la iniciativa del MIT como la asociación de la industria están tratando de vincular más estrechamente los avances tecnológicos con cuestiones políticas, sociales y económicas. El grupo del MIT ha estado discutiendo la idea de diseñar nuevos IA y sistemas robóticos con “la sociedad dentro del círculo.

La frase es una referencia al largo debate sobre el diseño de sistemas informáticos y robóticos que aún requieren de la interacción con los seres humanos. Por ejemplo, el Pentágono ha comenzado recientemente una estrategia militar que exige el uso de IA, pero en la que los seres humanos siguen controlando las decisiones a la hora de decidir matar a alguien, en lugar de delegar esa responsabilidad en las máquinas.

La clave que me gustaría señalar es que los científicos informáticos no son buenos a la hora de interactuar con los científicos sociales y los filósofos”, señala Joichi Ito, director del Laboratorio de Medios del MIT y miembro de la junta directiva de The New York TimesEl futuro dirá si la ética se impone a la inteligencia artificial.

Fuente: BBVA.
Fuente: BBVA.

NEW YORK TIMES. How Tech Giants Are Devising Real Ethics for Artificial Intelligence. 1 de septiembre de 2016 [Consultado 26-10-2016]. Disponible en: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/02/technology/artificial-intelligence-ethics.html

STANFORD. Artificial Intelligence and Life in 2030. Septiembre de 2016 [Consultado 26-10-2016]. Disponible en: https://ai100.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/ai100report10032016fnl_singles.pdf

BBVA. ¿Se puede regular la inteligencia artificial?. 15 de septiembre de 2016 [Consultado 26-10-2016]. Disponible en: http://www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/noticias/se-puede-regular-la-inteligencia-artificial

BBVA. La inteligencia artificial no está a la vuelta de la esquina. 5 de octubre de 2016 [Consultado 26-10-2016]. Disponible en: http://www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/noticias/la-inteligencia-artificial-no-esta-la-vuelta-de-la-esquina

BBVA. Infografía: Inteligencia artificial. 23 de septiembre de 2016 [Consultado 26-10-2016]. Disponible en: http://www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/infografia/infografia-inteligencia-artificial

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