La transformación digital alcanzará la escala macroeconómica en unos años

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CLAVES:

  • IDC lanzó sus 10 predicciones de la industria de IT para el 2017 las cuales abarcaron muchas tendencias que están teniendo éxito hoy en día y que lo tendrán en el futuro.
  • Desde cómo toda la economía mundial será reformada por la transformación digital a la aparición de la cuarta plataforma.
  • IDC predice que la transformación digital cambiará la manera en que las empresas operan y cambiará la forma de la economía global.
  • Cada vez más empresas integrarán la digitalización en todos los niveles y procesos.

IDC hizo sus 10 predicciones de la industria de IT para el 2017, estas predicciones abarcaron muchas tendencias exitosas hoy en día y que seguirán teniendo éxito en el futuro.

Desde cómo toda la economía mundial será reformada por la transformación digital, la transición de todas las empresas de “inmigrantes digitales” a “nativos digitales”, la ampliación de las aceleradoras de la innovación, la aparición de la “cuarta plataforma” (un nuevo conjunto de tecnologías que se convertirán en corriente principal en diez años), cambios drásticos en cómo las empresas se conectan a sus clientes y que el ecosistema se volverá tan importante para el éxito empresarial como la IP.

IDC predice que la transformación digital (DX) alcanzará la escala macroeconómica en los próximos tres a cuatro años, cambiando la manera en que las empresas operan y cambiando la forma de la economía global.

Cada vez más las empresas, sin importar su edad o industria, se convertirán en un “nativo digital” en la forma en que sus ejecutivos y empleados piensan y operan, integrando la digitalización en todos los niveles y procesos.

“Estamos en un punto de inflexión a medida que los esfuerzos de transformación digital pasan del estado de proyecto o iniciativa a un imperativo estratégico de negocios“, dijo Frank Gens, vicepresidente senior y analista jefe de IDC.

[section label=”Transformación de las empresas” anchor=”Transformación de las empresas”]

Transformación de las empresas

La primera de las predicciones es que para el 2020 la mitad del Global 2000 verá que la mayoría de sus negocios dependerán de su capacidad para crear productos, servicios y experiencias mejoradas digitalmente.

Se verá una transformación completa y profunda de lo que son las empresas y cómo se comportan en el mercado. A finales de 2017, el crecimiento de los ingresos de los productos basados en información será el doble que el resto de la cartera, para un tercio de las empresas del G2000.

Para el 2021, un tercio de los CEOs y COOs de las compañías del G2000 habrán pasado al menos 5 años en un papel de liderazgo tecnológico. En 2019, el gasto mundial en iniciativas de transformación digital alcanzará los 2,2 billones de dólares, casi el 60% más que en 2016.

[section label=”La tercera plataforma” anchor=”La tercera plataforma”]

La tercera plataforma

Para el año 2019, las tecnologías y servicios de la tercera plataforma impulsarán casi el 75% del gasto en IT, creciendo al doble del ritmo del mercado total de IT.

El año pasado, IDC predijo que las tecnologías y servicios de la tercera plataforma, como la nube, el big data/analytics, redes sociales y móviles, impulsarán el 60% (no el 75%) de la OIT para septiembre de 2019.

El aumento se debe a un “efecto bola de nieve”, ya que estas tecnologías ya no son “emergentes”, sino que se han convertido en la opción por defecto, sin embargo las aceleradoras de innovación de la 3ª plataforma, como la AI, el IoT, la AR/VR (realidad virtual), la robótica, la impresión 3D y la seguridad de la próxima generación (reforzada por blockchain) se convertirán en la corriente principal.

[section label=”La nube” anchor=”La nube”]

La nube

Para el 2020, el 67% de la infraestructura y el software de IT de la empresa y el gasto en software se destinarán a ofertas basadas en la nube que se vuelven distribuidas, confiables, inteligentes y orientadas por la industria.

Lo que son las nubes y lo que pueden hacer va a cambiar, IDC predice que la nube se distribuirá con el 60% de la IT fuera de la premisa, y el 85% por multi-nube en 2018 y el 43% del IoT será procesado para el 2019.

La nube será de confianza y para el año 2020 será donde se encontrará la vida de la IT, mejorada por la seguridad basada en blockchain.

La nube se concentrará y para el año 2020, los 5 mejores “players” de la nube Iaas/PaaS controlarán al menos el 75% de la cuota de mercado (frente a un 50% en 2016).

[section label=”Inteligencia Artificial” anchor=”Inteligencia Artificial”]

Inteligencia Artificial

La cuarta predicción habla de que para el 2019, el 40% de las iniciativas de transformación digital, y el 100% de las iniciativas del IoT, estarán respaldadas por las capacidades de la AI.

Los tres principales casos de uso de la AI en términos de gasto, según IDC, son:

  • Diagnósticos y tratamiento médicos.
  • Gestión de la calidad en la manufactura.
  • Agentes de servicios automatizados en el comercio minorista.

Para 2018, el 75% de los equipos de desarrolladores incluirán la funcionalidad de AI en una o más aplicaciones o servicios. El año pasado esta predicción fue del 50% y la aceleración se debe al hecho de que la nube está “democratizando la adopción” de la funcionalidad de la AI.

Para 2019, más de 110 millones de dispositivos de consumo con asistentes inteligentes integrados se instalarán en los hogares de los Estados Unidos. En el período 2017-2020, 7 de los 10 principales casos de uso de la AI estarán enfocados en la industria y representarán el 85% de los 10 principales casos de uso. Veremos una “batalla de plataformas de AI”, con una fuerte competencia para desarrolladores en este espacio.

[section label=”Realidad Virtual” anchor=”Realidad Virtual”]

Realidad Virtual

En el 2017, el 30% de las empresas G2000 orientadas al consumidor experimentarán con AR/VR (realidad virtual) como parte de sus esfuerzos de marketing.

Cada vez más empresas se conectarán con los consumidores a través de “interfaces de inmersión”, incluyendo realidad aumentada y realidad virtual. En 2018, la base mensual de usuarios activos que utilizarán aplicaciones móviles de realidad aumentada (por ejemplo, Pokemon Go) superará los 400 millones.

En 2020, más del 20% de los medios comerciales en Facebook será en 360 grados VR. Además el 20% de todos los medios de comunicación social serán en 360 grados en 2020. En 2019, las empresas desplegarán wearables earworn con interfaz de voz habilitada para la AI, como asistentes digitales para roles orientados al cliente (en retail, por ejemplo).

[section label=”Nube colaborativa” anchor=”Nube colaborativa”]

Nube colaborativa

Para el año 2018, el número de nubes colaborativas de la industria se triplicará a más de 450.

Para el 2020, casi el 60% de las empresas participarán activamente en el cumplimiento de la Nube, y para entonces el 75% de las empresas F500 serán proveedores de servicios digitales a través de Nubes colaborativas de la industria. Más del 90% de la Industria de nubes colaborativas se asociarán con un proveedor de mega-plataforma en la nube.

[section label=”Equipos de transformación” anchor=”Equipos de transformación”]

Equipos de transformación digital

A finales del 2017, más del 70% de los Global 500 contarán con equipos de transformación/innovación digital.

El 60% de las empresas F100 ya han formado un equipo o una unidad de negocios centrada en la transformación digital, pero para el 2018, las empresas que desarrollen estrategias de transformación digital ampliarán sus equipos de desarrollo de dos a tres veces.

Para el 2019, más del 50% del valor del software será monetizado a través de “cosas” y servicios al consumidor y negocios. Para el 2020, los equipos de transformación digital obtendrán más del 80% de sus componentes de soluciones de las comunidades de código abierto.

[section label=”Proveedores de servicios cloud” anchor=”Proveedores de servicios cloud”]

Proveedores de servicios cloud

Para el año 2020, más del 70% de los ingresos de los proveedores de servicios en la nube serán mediados por socios/brokers del canal.

Habrá un “reinicio completo de la comunidad de canales”, ya que los proveedores de servicios cloud necesitarán ayuda para llegar a clientes potenciales y apoyarlos en los servicios en la nube.

Para 2018, los principales distribuidores de IT habrán hecho la transición de al menos un tercio de su negocio, desde ventas de hardware hasta ventas/corretaje de servicios en la nube.

Para el año 2018, la mayoría de los proveedores de servicios cloud, fuera de los 10 mejores, ofrecerán acceso mejorado a los servicios de cloud computing de sus principales competidores. Para el año 2021, el paisaje de “cloud broker” que sirve a las PYMES se convertirá en un sector altamente específico, ofreciendo servicios empresariales basados en la nube.

[section label=”Niveles de rendimiento” anchor=”Niveles de rendimiento”]

Niveles de rendimiento

Para el 2020, el desempeño de todas las empresas será medido por un nuevo y exigente conjunto de puntos de referencia en liderazgo, participación de los clientes, digitalización de ofertas nuevas y tradicionales, eficiencia operativa y agilidad organizacional.

Al menos uno de cada tres de los líderes en cada industria no logrará eliminar estos obstáculos de transformación digital.

Estos nuevos puntos de referencia incluirán una mejora del 35% en el Promotor Promedio Net, un crecimiento del 100% en los ingresos de productos basados en información, el 20% de los procesos se auto-sanarán y una mejora del 50% en las capas de gestión.

Estos niveles de rendimiento serán lo normal para todas las empresas. Competir y prosperar en la economía de la transformación digital significa que cada empresa debe pensar y operar como una organización digital nativa.

[section label=”La cuarta plataforma” anchor=”La cuarta plataforma”]

La cuarta plataforma

La última de las predicciones habla de que para el 2020, una de cada tres de las empresas de salud/ciencias de la salud y de las compañías de productos de consumo comenzarán a desarrollar los primeros productos y servicios integrando firmemente tecnologías de la 3ª Plataforma que interactuarán con el cuerpo humano. Las ofertas de la “Humanidad Aumentada (Augmented Hymanity)” serán predominantes y comunes a mediados del 2020.

La cuarta plataforma será la integración de las tecnologías digitales con biosistemas humanos y el uso de tecnologías digitales para la ingeniería de sistemas biológicos a nivel celular y subcelular. “La cuarta plataforma es nosotros”, dice IDC.

Este conjunto de tecnologías proporcionará a los seres humanos una amplia variedad de mejoras y se podrá ver a los primeros adoptantes desde el 2021 al 2026. Los aspectos éticos y legales surgirán, y habrá mucha controversia y debate alrededor de la aparición de la cuarta plataforma.

Lo que se verá como resultado de todos estos cambios, según IDC, será la transformación de la cadena de valor empresarial tradicional a un nuevo gráfico social de la empresa o gráfico de innovación de la empresa, que vincula a la empresa con sus diversas comunidades, canales, plataformas de la industria, proveedores de datos, clientes y aficionados, como ya vemos hoy en Amazon, Apple y Salesforce.

[section label=”Android Things” anchor=”Android Things”]

Android Things

Todas estas predicciones dejan claro que el futuro será diferente a como se conoce ahora, pero con estas tendencias ya se está trabajando, y se están explorando para poder llegar a un futuro así.

Tal es el caso del Internet de las Cosas (IoT) que está ganando una importancia mayúscula durante estos últimos años dentro del panorama tecnológico. Y no es para menos, pues aunque aún queda mucho camino por recorrer para mejorar este tipo de sistemas, es inimaginable el potencial que aún tienen por delante.

Y Google, por supuesto, no quiere quedarse fuera de esta revolución tecnológica. Ya lo intentó allá por el año 2015 con Google Brillo, una plataforma exclusivamente destinada a este tipo de sistemas, y que hoy ha cambiado de nombre para pasar a denominarse “Android Things”, el cual está disponible para descargar en forma de Developer Preview (desarrolladores).

Android-Things-sale-a-la-luz
Fuente: androidthings

Esta plataforma, es un sistema operativo basado, por supuesto, en Android, pero simplificado y reducido al máximo con el fin de poder ser ejecutado en la mayoría de dispositivos conectados pertenecientes al Internet de las Cosas que casi siempre son gadgets de bajos recursos.

Android Things viene con una gran cantidad de herramientas que se asemejan a las utilizadas por Android Studio. Entre estas herramientas, vamos a poder encontrar Google Play Services o Google Cloud Platform.

Google también está trabajando para agregar soporte a Weave, su plataforma de comunicaciones IoT que ayuda a los dispositivos a conectarse a los servicios de Google para configurar y hablar con otros gadgets, así como con Google Assistant. Philips Hue y Samsung SmartThings ya utilizan Weave.

ENTERPRISE INNOVATION. Top 10 IT predictions for 2017 and beyond. 19 de diciembre de 2016. [consultado 22-12-2016]. Disponible en: http://www.enterpriseinnovation.net/article/top-10-it-predictions-2017-and-beyond-790002643

FORBES. Top 10 Tech Predictions For 2017 From IDC. 1 de noviembre de 2016. [consultado 22-12-2016]. Disponible en: http://www.forbes.com/sites/gilpress/2016/11/01/top-10-tech-predictions-for-2017-from-idc/#23f70f382790

ANDROID DEVELOPERS. Announcing updates to Google’s Internet of Things platform: Android Things and Weave. 13 de diciembre de 2016. [consultado 22-12-2016]. Disponible en: https://android-developers.googleblog.com/2016/12/announcing-googles-new-internet-of-things-platform-with-weave-and-android-things.html

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