El gasto mundial en tecnología TI se está acelerando

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  • El gasto mundial en tecnología de la información y las comunicaciones (TIC) se acelerará en los próximos cinco años, gracias al crecimiento de las nuevas tecnologías.
  • Este año el gasto TI que se espera para EMEA es de 974.000 millones de dólares y se prevé que en 2018 supere el billón de dólares este año, pero sí en 2018.
  • En la parte occidental de Europa, el gasto TI en 2017 crecerá un 2,7 % respecto al gasto registrado en la zona durante 2016. Y la cifra debería seguir aumentando al menos hasta 2021.
  • Además, Las pymes de Europa occidental gastarán más y más dinero en TI durante los próximos años. En 2017 dichas empresas invertirán 125.300 millones de dólares, lo que supone un incremento del 3,4 % respecto a 2016.

De acuerdo con IDC en su estudio “Worldwide Black Book”, el gasto total de TI tradicional, servicios de telecomunicaciones y nuevas tecnologías aumentará de 4,3 billones de dólares en 2016 a 5,6 billones de dólares en 2021.

Además, en Europa occidental, el informe de IDC “Western Europe Vertical Markets IT Spending Forecast, 2017–2021” concluye que el gasto TI en 2017 crecerá un 2,7 % respecto al gasto registrado en la zona durante 2016, y seguirá aumentando hasta al menos 2021. Mientras, de acuerdo con Gartner, este año el gasto TI que se espera para EMEA es de 974.000 millones de dólares.

[section label=”El gasto mundial en tecnología TIC se acelerará en los próximos cinco años” anchor=”El gasto mundial en tecnología TIC se acelerará en los próximos cinco años”]

El gasto mundial en tecnología TIC se acelerará en los próximos cinco años

El gasto mundial en tecnología de la información y las comunicaciones (TIC) se acelerará en los próximos cinco años, gracias al crecimiento de las nuevas tecnologías, incluidas Internet de las cosas (IoT), robótica, Realidad Aumentada y Virtual (RA / RV) e informática cognitiva e Inteligencia Artificial (IA). Si bien el último Black Book de International Data Corporation (IDC) prevé que el gasto TI crecerá a más ritmo que el PIB mundial en cuatro años.

El gasto total de TI tradicional, servicios de telecomunicaciones y nuevas tecnologías aumentará de 4,3 billones de dólares en 2016 a 5,6 billones de dólares en 2021, lo que representa una tasa de crecimiento anual compuesta (CAGR) del 6% en términos de moneda constante. El crecimiento anual se acelerará durante el período de pronóstico, del 5,5% en 2017 al 6,5% en 2021, ya que las nuevas tecnologías representan una proporción cada vez mayor del mercado en general.

El gasto tradicional en TIC (TI y telecomunicaciones) es ahora un sector maduro de la economía. El crecimiento de la nube también se canibalizará con los ingresos tradicionales de TIC, concentrando más gasto de capital de TI en manos de grandes proveedores de servicios en la nube. El gasto tradicional de TI crecerá a una tasa anual del 3-4% durante los próximos cinco años, mientras que el gasto en telecomunicaciones aumentará aproximadamente un 1% por año.

Mientras tanto, han surgido nuevas oportunidades de crecimiento en las nuevas tecnologías que IDC llama “Aceleradores de Innovación” (IoT, inteligencia artificial cognitiva, robótica, AR / VR, impresión 3D y seguridad de próxima generación). El nuevo gasto en TIC de estas categorías crecerá un 17% en 2017 y continuará acelerándose en los próximos cinco años a medida que los niveles de adopción aumenten en todo el mundo, incluso en los mercados emergentes. IoT, robótica y AR / VR en particular llegarán a representar una proporción significativa del mercado global de TIC para el año 2021.

prUS43163517-F-1
Fuente: IDC

Los Aceleradores de Innovación son un impulsor importante para la 3ra Plataforma, que está reemplazando rápidamente a la 2da. Plataforma de centros de datos, dispositivos y software en las instalaciones“, dijo Stephen Minton, vicepresidente del grupo Customer Insights & Analysis de IDC. “Esto no solo introduce nuevas categorías de alto crecimiento como visores de realidad virtual, drones, impresoras 3D y soluciones de IoT, sino que también representa un cambio creciente en categorías tradicionales como el crecimiento de servidores IoT o software de inteligencia cognitiva“.

Hace unos años la firma identificó un cambio importante del desplazamiento del gasto hacia las tecnologías que acuñó como la 3ª Plataforma, término que aglutina a las soluciones cloud, de big data, analítica y de social business. Estos aceleradores son los que seguirán impulsando el crecimiento de las inversiones en este tipo de tecnologías que supondrán el 75% del gasto TIC en 2021.

La 2da Plataforma se está reduciendo, pero las economías maduras aún tienen una gran base de infraestructura heredada para mantener y migrar“, dijo Minton. “Los mercados emergentes, por otro lado, a veces pueden superar las segundas tecnologías de la Plataforma y pasar directamente a la adopción rápida de nuevas plataformas. Asia Pacífico, por ejemplo, se ha convertido en un innovador líder en el crecimiento de la IoT y la robótica, ya visto un crecimiento explosivo en el móvil en los últimos años “.

[section label=”EE.UU. sigue adoptando tempranamente la innovación basada en software” anchor=”EE.UU. sigue adoptando tempranamente la innovación basada en software”]

EE.UU. sigue adoptando tempranamente la innovación basada en software

Si bien los mercados emergentes como Asia Pacífico (excluido Japón) están impulsando el crecimiento de algunas categorías nuevas, las empresas de los Estados Unidos siguen adoptando tempranamente la innovación basada en software, incluida la nube, big data y análisis, e inteligencia cognitiva. Algunas economías emergentes tardarán más en alcanzar el mismo nivel de desarrollo de software e infraestructura que ha permitido el rápido crecimiento de la computación basada en la nube en los EE. UU. Sin embargo, la dirección del gasto en TIC es la misma en todas las regiones.

En la región de Europa Central y del Este (CEE), la mayoría de las categorías de la segunda Plataforma de tecnología están en declive“, dijo Thomas Vavra, vicepresidente de investigación de software en la región CEMA. “Por el contrario, y con la excepción de un par de categorías de dispositivos móviles, cada tecnología en la 3 ª plataforma está creciendo fuertemente. En resumen, las inversiones de la tercera plataforma son el motor de crecimiento del mercado de TI en la región“.

Al igual que muchos mercados emergentes, CEE ha quedado rezagado respecto de algunas economías maduras en lo que respecta a la adopción de tecnologías como la nube, que son más dependientes de la infraestructura de línea fija, o en el desarrollo de soluciones de software de vanguardia para el mercado local.

Asia Pacífico, por ejemplo, representó más del 50% del gasto mundial de IoT en 2016, pero solo el 6% de la inversión en Inteligencia Artificial cognitiva. A largo plazo, sin embargo, el crecimiento continuo de la inversión en infraestructura móvil y soluciones de software llevará a estas regiones al siguiente nivel de innovación de la Tercera Plataforma.

La movilidad y la IoT ya han tenido un gran impacto en el gasto de TI en la región de Europa Central y Oriental y continuarán creciendo con fuerza“, dijo Vavra. “Aunque relativamente pequeño en la actualidad, se espera que RA / RV e inteligencia cognitiva superen a todas las demás categorías de tecnología en los próximos años“.

[section label=”Este año el gasto TI que se espera para EMEA es de 974.000 millones de dólares” anchor=”Este año el gasto TI que se espera para EMEA es de 974.000 millones de dólares”]

Este año el gasto TI que se espera para EMEA es de 974.000 millones de dólares

De acuerdo con Gartner, este año el gasto TI que se espera para EMEA –siglas en inglés de “Europa, Oriente Próximo (literalmente Oriente Medio) y África– es de 974.000 millones de dólares.

El Reino Unido tiene el mayor mercado de TI de EMEA y su descenso del 3,1 % en 2017 impacta fuertemente en el pronóstico”, explica John-David Lovelock, vicepresidente de investigación en esta consultora. “La debilidad de la libra esterlina y la incertidumbre política desde Brexit están reduciendo el gasto de TI en Reino Unido en 2017″, añade. “Sin embargo, otros mercados de TI importantes en EMEA sí que estarían creciendo constantemente”.

Las expectativas para 2018, por otro lado, son buenas. En total se llegará a más de 1 billón de dólares de gasto.

Parece que en el mercado tecnológico influirá la apreciación del euro frente al dólar estadounidense. Sin embargo, de acuerdo con Lovelock, la recuperación en 2018 se debe a algo más que los efectos de divisa. La fuerte demanda en las categorías de software empresarial y servicios de TI en toda EMEA insinúa cambios significativos en los patrones de gasto de TI.

Las empresas están reduciendo ampliamente el gasto en la posesión de hardware de TI e incrementando el gasto en el consumo de TI como servicio”, dice este analista.

Si en 2017 el gasto empresarial se contraerá un 1,4 %, solamente con el mercado de software mostrando una faceta positiva, en 2018 se incrementará un 2,8 %, con mejorías en todas las categorías. Sobre todo, en servicios de TI y software.

Screenshot_15
Fuente: Gartner

[section label=”El gasto TI en europa occidental crecerá un 2,7%” anchor=”El gasto TI en europa occidental crecerá un 2,7%”]

El gasto TI en europa occidental crecerá un 2,7%

Este año el gasto de TI en la parte occidental de Europa crecerá un 2,7 % respecto al gasto registrado en la zona durante 2016. Se estima que se llegará hasta los 453.800 millones de dólares. Y la cifra debería seguir aumentando al menos hasta 2021.

Screenshot_16
Fuente: IDC

En esto tendrán que ver las soluciones de la denominada Tercera Plataforma y una serie de tecnologías como la realidad aumentada, la realidad virtual, la inteligencia artificial y cognitiva, la robótica, la impresión 3D o el internet de las cosas.

Las tecnologías tradicionales como la movilidad, las redes sociales, la nube y Big Data ayudaron a las empresas a introducir cambios y pasar de un enfoque tradicional a uno más digitalizado. Con las tecnologías de próxima generación”, comenta Andrea Minonne, analista de investigación para IDC European Industry Solutions, Customer Insight & Analysis, “las empresas van a hacer un esfuerzo adicional, avanzar en competencia y abrazar plenamente la transformación digital”.

IDC prevé una optimización de procesos y también “una automatización extrema”. Además, “la gran cantidad de datos que producen los clientes permitirá a las empresas comprender en qué deben concentrarse. Esto dará como resultado productos o servicios más personalizados y una mayor satisfacción del cliente”, dice Minonne.

Este año los mercados verticales que más gastarán en TI, acumulando más de un tercio del gasto, serán los de consumo, banca y fabricación discreta.

[section label=”Las pymes invertirán más en tecnología” anchor=”Las pymes invertirán más en tecnología”]

Las pymes invertirán más en tecnología

En el estudio, IDC destaca que las pymes, que en el pasado se mostraban más reticentes a abandonar las soluciones tradicionales, ahora tienen inclinación a invertir. Las pymes de Europa occidental gastarán más y más dinero en TI durante los próximos años.

Según cálculos de IDC, en 2017 dichas empresas invertirán 125.300 millones de dólares, lo que supone un incremento del 3,4 % respecto a 2016. Y para dentro de cuatro años, para 2021, también se espera un crecimiento del gasto.

 “Las pymes muestran resiliencia e inclinación a invertir”, opina Carla La Croce, analista de investigación para IDC European Industry Solutions, Customer Insight & Analysis.

Las condiciones han mejorado para las pymes, ya que ha habido mejoras en el acceso a los mercados, gracias a una infraestructura física y TIC mejorada, reformas normativas y un acceso más fácil a información y finanzas”, añade La Core, que recuerda que “el viaje de la transformación digital” llegó a plantear “desafíos a las pymes, que en el pasado se mostraban más reticentes a abandonar las soluciones tradicionales”.

Sin embargo, se habría visto que la nube, Big Data y análisis e IoT, así como la IA y los sistemas cognitivos, son tecnologías inevitables que son esenciales para enfrentar los desafíos comerciales cotidianos, concluyen desde IDC.

Cabe destacar que las pymes representan más del 99 % de los negocios y aportan un tercio del gasto en Europa occidental.

Screenshot_17
Fuente: IDC

IDC. Worldwide Black Book. 2017. [consultado 14-11-2017]. Disponible en: https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=IDC_P336

IDC. Western Europe Vertical Markets IT Spending Forecast, 2017–2021. 2017. [consultado 14-11-2017]. Disponible en: https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=EMEA41354717

IDC. Western European IT Spending Highlights Interest in Next-Generation Technologies Across Vertical Markets, Says IDC. 13 de octubre 2017. [consultado 14-11-2017]. Disponible en: https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prEMEA43154317

IDC. New Technologies Will Drive ICT Spending Back to Double the Rate of GDP Growth, According to IDC. 18 de octubre de 2017. [consultado 14-11-2017]. Disponible en: https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS43163517

GARTNER. Gartner Says IT Spending in EMEA to Exceed $1 Trillion in 2018, Up 4.9 Percent from 2017. 8 de noviembre de 2017. [consultado 14-11-2017]. Disponible en: https://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3825563

SILICON. El gasto TI en EMEA no superará el billón de dólares este año, pero sí en 2018. 8 de noviembre de 2017. [consultado 14-11-2017]. Disponible en: http://www.silicon.es/gasto-ti-emea-2017-2018-2361096?inf_by=58ec78692ad0a100554e8864

SILICON. El gasto TI de las pymes de Europa occidental crecerá un 3,4%. 10 de noviembre de 2017. [consultado 14-11-2017]. Disponible en: http://www.silicon.es/gasto-ti-pymes-europa-occidental-2-2361462?inf_by=58ec78692ad0a100554e8864

SILICON. Este año el gasto TI crecerá un 2,7 en Europa occidental. 16 de octubre de 2017. [consultado 14-11-2017]. Disponible en: http://www.silicon.es/gasto-ti-europa-occidental-2017-2358036?inf_by=587db8622ad0a1287d1cc298

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